Friday, November 6, 2009

Friday Update, Post-ish Swine

Wow, quite a few days. A whole family laid up with probable swine. Still have a couple fevers in the house nearly a week later, but it seems like we are getting over the hump, slowly. So, what did I miss? Before I went down, I was preparing to write a post on how the rental market is still a disaster. I guess I will get to that at some point, but the take away is that the rental market has gotten worse, not better over the past couple of months. For many this is good. Prices are down further and incentives abound.
The jobs report this morning interesting. While the unemployment rate popped up to 10.2%, the worst since 1983, the number of jobs lost in October (190,000) and the 3 month moving average (178,000) has improved markedly since the beginning of the year. While newspaper headlines will scream the headline number and possibly dent fragile consumer confidence to some extent, things still seem to be tracking towards positive job growth some time in the spring. The effect on the NYC real estate industry? In my opinion, such news will only extend the window of opportunity to purchase at compelling prices. It is not a question of if the residential market will recover, but when. While such seemingly bleak news may scare some heading into the dead of winter, be mindful that the comps that we are up against vs. last winter's virtual freeze are weak. Don't be surprised if you start seeing news of apartment sales in NYC up 40% vs. last year in the first quarter. It will sound better than it is. Still, half the battle is psychological, and the weak comps should aid confidence in the NYC market.
Back with more soon..

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