Thursday, April 30, 2015

Fed Flash: Rates Remain Unchanged, Likely To Remain Flat Until The Fall

The Fed has once again left rates unchanged. The April meeting concluded very much like the March meeting in statement and substance. I remain convinced that a rate hike is unlikely before Fall, and rate hikes and an ease of accommodative policy will be very gradual. The Fed outlines six factors to consider before raising rates: the labor market, inflation gauges, inflation expectations, and "financial and international developments", and of course the strength of the economy. The strongest of these indicators at present is the labor market which has remained healthy. Jobless claims are at a the lowest level in a decade, so the gradual improvement in the labor looks good. Wages are just starting to uptick, which would suggest that the slack in the labor market has finally started to tighten up. Inflation is tame, especially in light of lower energy prices, but the expectation in the ever vague fed-speak of "medium term" looks to be around their target of 2%. The financial markets are relatively stable for now, yet the international situation remains shaky. So, by most indicators, we are still in a holding pattern. The Fed sees the Winter pause in growth as "transitory", but will have to see evidence that it is right before it takes any action.


How does this play for the NYC real estate market? For now, more Goldilocks!


Keep an eye on the blog for an upcoming entry looking at the NYC real estate market in depth.

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