Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Fed Flash: Rates Increase 1/4 Point For First Time Since 2006

My rate forecast back in March has been fulfilled as the Fed finally, in a widely anticipated move, raised the Fed Funds rate 1/4 of a point today. The current Funds rate is now a target range between .25% and .50%. So, with slight bragging aside, 2016 seems to be far more difficult to forecast than 2015. The economy is relatively healthy, but far from robust. There is very little inflationary pressure, and wages are just now starting to see an inkling of acceleration. GDP forecasts are in the 2.5% range for 2016. Those forecasts would have to be topped for the Fed to do anything dramatic on the interest rate front. From this vantage point, I think the Fed will gradually try to put a couple of bullets back in the holster, so I see a gradual increase in rates for 2016. My forecast, three rate hikes in 2016 of a quarter point each.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

On East 86th Street, Sanitation Improvements and Street Vendor Challenges

86th Street, Before(L), After (R) (A.Fine)
First the good news: East 86th Street is getting cleaner! As we all know, East 86th Street has been a mess the past few years. "Ready, Willing, and Able", the charity that employs homeless to clean while they train to re-enter society, left in 2011 and trash cans have been overflowing into the streets ever since. Until now! I highlighted the problem on March 16th with a post titled "Garbage Problems On East 86th Recall Bad Old Days." That post seemed to have prompted a copycat report on WCBS-TV news the next day: "Residents, Business Owners, Want City To Curb 86th Street Trash Problem." While there was no credit attributed to A Fine Blog, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and the point was to get the word out and draw attention to the problem. This had an immediate, but far from long lasting impact. Tickets were written the next few days, and the Dep't of Sanitation quickly cleaned up the mess, but the problem came right back a couple of days later. So, more perseverance was required. I took my complaints to our receptive councilman, Ben Kallos. I kind of feel sorry for him, as I'll admit, I'm persistent, and to this day maintain a healthy back and forth with his office. I complained to Sanitation, the Health Department, Consumer Affairs, 311, the Mayor, the Borough President. And, I have encouraged friends, family, and neighbors to do the same. Finally, we are seeing progress! A week back I noticed that the garbage cans were no longer overflowing, rather, there were full green garbage bags alongside the cans that were suddenly being emptied regularly. As it turns out, Sanitation has partnered with local merchants and the merchants are now helping prevent the mess. The difference is significant. Because the cans are now being emptied more often you can tell that there is a lot less litter on the streets and there is no longer the unsightly "snow cone" of garbage on every corner. Additionally, more and bigger garbage cans are coming to the area.
Big Belly, 86th + Lex
This morning I was heartened to see two brand new "Big Belly" solar-compactor garbage vessels on the SE corner of 86th and Lex. It also comes on good information that lager garbage can trios (includes a regular refuse can, a can for paper, and another can for cans and bottles), should be deployed on or near Third Avenue in the mid-80's. Fingers crossed! Three times the garbage cans will hold three times the garbage! So, that is the progress. 86th Street is looking cleaner. We have a way to go, but I want to thank Councilman Kallos' office for being responsive and actually getting results. I would also like to thank everyday citizens who have joined in the cause to be the squeaky wheel that gets the grease!

86th + Third Avenue, Early Morning
We still have plenty of challenges on East 86th Street. The vast proliferation of Street Vendors is at or near the top of the list. The problem is obvious. They take up an incredible amount of sidewalk space in perhaps the most congested residential areas in NYC. They take valuable parking spaces (all day long) from customers who might otherwise park and shop at rent paying, tax-paying stores in the neighborhood. They have no concern about litter or regulations, and there is no uniformity to their stands. In short, they are a blight. In getting started on this issue, I've read up on the rules and regulations, and I attended my first Community Board (CB8) meeting on the problem. I was stunned at my findings. Among them:

- The City Council is considering increasing the number of vendor permits. Shortly after the meeting, CB8 has come out opposed to these increases.

- The City allows vending in front of residential buildings that are zoned residential with a commercial overlay. In other words, buildings zoned for apartments and stores. Yet, in my book, the commercial overlay relates only to the building use, not the use of the sidewalk!

- Aside from in front of the Metropolitan Museum, no street vendors are allowed on Fifth Avenue and Park Avenue. Hmmm, convenient.

- Apparently, there is a very influential street vendor lobby that both the City Council and CB8 appear to be intimidated by. Who knew?

- There is a widespread myth that street vending is some magical, entrepreneurial path to larger business success. The truth is, that might have been the case on Orchard Street in 1915, but today entrepreneurs can utilize street fairs, flea markets, and that thing known as the internet if they want to start a business.

- The three agencies that are responsible for enforcement (Health, Consumer Affairs, Sanitation) are all understaffed with inspectors combined numbering in the dozens, total.


86th bet Third and Lex
Oddly, it seems that our quality of life and our common space are being held hostage by a very small group- the street vendors. There are only a couple thousand permits for all of NYC, yet they practically own the streets. Personally, I would be perfectly happy if there were none of them. The sidewalks would be clear, parking more readily available for businesses that pay rent and taxes, and the streets would be cleaner, more pleasant and more passable. If we are forced to live with vendors I have a couple of ideas. First, the physical stands should be standardized. Second, there must be enforcement. Did you know that street vendors cannot be within 10' of the edge of a crosswalk, within 15' of a fire hydrant, or within 20' of the edge of a door? There is very little enforcement and hence virtually no compliance. Since the agencies responsible have no man power, perhaps it is time to empower traffic agents with the authority to write tickets to non-compliant vendors. There sure is no shortage of them.

Let this be said. I am not against people trying to make an honest living. I don't even have that big of a problem with food trucks so long as their numbers are limited and they are diligent about keeping the area near the truck clean. Who doesn't like a decent truck Taco here and there? What I do have a big problem with is complete disarray on our sidewalks. The problems are numerous, pervasive, and need to be addressed. The sidewalks belong to all New Yorkers. We should not be forced to live with unsightly filth, and unnecessary congestion in densely populated residential areas. 86th Street is finally making progress, let's make this a trend!

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

A New Place to Watch Notre Dame Football On The Upper East Side, Gael Pub!


Notre Dame is a big school with big tradition, but no real home to watch the games on the Upper East Side. That all changes this Saturday with the Fighting Irish squaring off vs. the undefeated Navy Midshipmen at 3pm. Noticing the lack of a home on the UES, I helped enlist one of my favorite locals, the Gael Pub (an Irish Pub no less), to be that new home that Irish fans on the Upper East Side have been yearning for. Every Notre Dame Football game will play at the bar on Third Avenue between 82nd and 83rd Streets. There are plenty of TVs, the sound will be on, drink specials offered ($12 bud lite pitchers for example), and they have a tasty food menu as well! As a fan, I couldn't be happier. Way to go Gael Pub! Go Irish!

Gael Pub, 1465 Third Avenue

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Right Wing's False NYC "Crime Wave" Narrative A Threat To City's Economy (Opinion)

We've heard it over and over in the local and national media from nearly day one of Mayor deBlasio's administration- New York City is falling into a state of chaos and lawlessness. Just in the past week, I have seen such assertions on Meet The Press, Morning Joe, in the New York Post from the likes of Chris Christie (like he should talk, ever heard of Newark or Trenton), Rudy Guiliani, and Joe Scarborough to name a few. The talking points are the same- murders are skyrocketing, we are going back to the "bad old days", it's like the 70's all over again. This is patently false.

Let's get to the facts:

- The total number of murders in NYC is within 4.5% of an all-time low, set just last year. Year-to-date there have been 231 murders in NYC vs 221 last year.

- For the past 28 days, murder is down 21.6% vs last year, and last week murders were down 68.8% vs last year.

- Murders are down 1.7% over the past 2 years, and down 38.1% compared to 5 years ago.

- "Major Crimes" are down 3.9% this year and 6.6% over 2 years.

- For a more historic perspective, murder in NYC is down 82.8% vs 22 years ago.

- Murder peaked in NYC in 1990 when there were 2245, last year there were 328.

The effort is pretty transparent to locals. This is political. The last thing that the right wing wants or can afford is the success of a clearly left, progressive mayor. While NYC is largely liberal, our media is not. Ruppert Murdoch alone owns the Post, WSJ, Fox 5, and Channel 9. The effort has been obvious from the day deBlasio was sworn into office. Whether his police motorcade ran a red light, a snowplow missed Park Avenue on the UES, or he was late for something, again- we've heard about it. We get it! Yet, I think the media and right wing pundits are crossing the line when they push a narrative, nationally, about crime in New York City which is blatantly false and misleading. The repetitive bashing of NYC will slowly permeate into the national and international conscience. Not everyone will believe it, but it is certain many will. Do we want your average Joe from Wisconsin to reconsider his Christmas vacation to the city because he's 'heard it's getting pretty dangerous'? Is it worth the risk of tanking a $40 Billion dollar tourist industry for political gain? How about the Real Estate Industry? Banking? Tech? Or, for that matter, the circulation and advertising rates in the NY Post?

The "crime wave" narrative is vacuous, wrong, false, and both ethically and morally corrupt. More importantly, it is an assault on the economy of our city. Call New York and our Mayor what you want, but do not throw the prosperity of the entire city under the bus for political gain. Ultimately, rich and poor, liberal and conservative will all pay the price.

Monday, September 14, 2015

New Hudson Yards 7 Train Station and Park in 17 Pictures!


Entrance (A. Fine 9/2015)
The new 7 train extension to Hudson Yards (34th Street and 11th Avenue) is quite impressive. The station is modern, clean, climate controlled, and sports an extra wide platform, tons of escalators and a couple of elevators that travel at 45 degrees. Above ground is a spiffy park on the new Street, Hudson Boulevard. The park is well landscaped, has tons of benches, fountains, tables and even a lawn. The pictures say it all! 

Entry (A. Fine 9/2015)
Fountains (A. Fine, 2015)
Much more...Just Click "Continue Reading" below the social media sharing doo dad...

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Why the New York Giants Will Not Suck in 2015

Alright, alright, it has been a tough couple of years, TC is on the hot seat, and the conventional wisdom is that the Giants are in for an 5-11 year. Guess what? This won't happen. Big Blue has more talent then they are given credit for. Ye of little faith, let me spell out why the NY Giants are not going to suck this year.

T.C. (Courtesy Thesportsquotient.com)

Tom Coughlin

Yes, it is "win or else" for the oldest coach in the league, but we are talking about a brilliant coach with incredible will and spirit, not to mention two Super Bowl victories in the past 8 campaigns. You can dive into every nuance of his personality, changes in coaching philosophy, and so on and so on, but you have to readily acknowledge that this coach is not looking to go out on a down note. TC will also be the beneficiary of a changing of the guard at Defensive Coordinator. Perry Fewell (who was awful) is out and Steve Spagnuolo is back. In 07' and 08' with Spags at the helm the G-Men won Super Bowl XLII and followed that with a 12-4 season. Granted, our personnel is very different this time around, but the defense is going to have to get creative and Spags has far more promise that Fewell ever did.

Eli

Eli enters year two of the Bob McAdoo's West Coast offense. People seem to easily forget that in Year One of this new offense Manning ended up with one of his best years- 30 Td's (a career high) vs 14 INTs, 4410 yards, and a career high 63.1% pass completion percentage. This year he comes in with a strong comfort level and additional weapons, namely scat back Shane Vereen, and a relatively healthy Victor Cruz. And of course, let's not forget Odell Beckham Jr and Ruben Randle. Taken together, the NY Giants have the potential to have the league's most feared receiving corps. This naturally leads us to the question....can the O-Line hold up?

The O Line

The question marks are clearly here. The O line was challenged last year and did a far greater job pass blocking than run blocking. While stalwart Will Beatty is out the first 6 weeks, and despite a weak link at RT in Newhouse, the O-Line this year is stronger than last year. The difference? First round pick Erick Flowers, for one. If early indications prove true, the 6'6", 330 pounder is a beast. Sure, he is learning LT, but so far, so good. You also have a healthy Schwartz (this week at least), a steadily improving Justin Pugh, and Weston Richburg actually playing at his natural position, Center. Overall, looks like the Giants have improved the line vs last year.

The Secondary

When you have lost 3 safeties in one preseason, you know the roster has to be pretty slim. However, if you are looking at the top four guys starting in the secondary they are not looking bad at all. At Corners, you have Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Any complaints there? Not-so-much! At Strong Safety you have newcomer and first round draft pick Landon Collins. This kid has speed and has shown that he covers the field extremely well. The Giants hope he can step in and start effectively. All indications point to him being the real deal. For the Giants sake, let's hope so! Finally you have Free Safety position that looks to be Cooper Taylor with a variety of back-ups including 2 time pro bowler Brandon Meriweather. While the Giants depth is certainly a concern, our current starting line-up is stronger than last year.

Special Teams

Maybe, just maybe, this is the year that the Giants Special Teams, under perennial failure, Tom Quinn, do not stink. Gone is fading (yet revered) Punter Steve Weatherford, in is big leg Brad Wing. Gone is the ineffective return team by committee, in is big money and explosive return man Dwayne Harris. Coughlin, it is clear with his roster cuts, now favors youth in addition to ability to play special teams. Nikita Whitlock, the 5'10", 250lb FB is a great example- part fire hydrant, part spark plug, 100% hustle. One thing is for sure, it is hard not to improve over the past few years.

Young Studs

There are some impact players to watch, that at the least will make games interesting this year. There are the aforementioned Collins and Flowers, but we also have a slew of young studs developing like Devon Kennard, who will get the starting nod at Strong Side LB. The second year player out of USC flashed last year and is widely regarded as one of the steals of the draft in the 5th round, 175th overall. While even whispering "LT" in the same sentence with any Giant linebacker prospect is a no-no, let's just say Kennard has "LT-like" instincts to the ball. He will be fun to watch!Another 2nd year player that could flourish is Jay Bromley, a back-up DT out of Syracuse (3rd round, 74th overall). Scouting Bromley at the Timex Center this summer, all I can tell you is that the man was throwing linemen all over the field like they were children. With other intriguing back-ups on the D Line like freakish, yet still unbridaled talent Damontre Moore and rookie camp sensation Owa Odighizuwa working for playing time at DE, our D line has promise regardless of the status or JPP.

There are plenty of wildcards yet to come. Does JPP come back and can he be effective? Are there further roster moves that will be made to shore up weaknesses at RT, the D-line, or Secondary? Is Will Beatty going to make an impact after 6 weeks on the IR? Will it even matter at that point? While these are all valid considerations, it looks like Eli should have plenty to work with and has the potential to put up career numbers. The Giants D, under Spags, has nothing but upside vs. expectations, and even the special teams are improved. Will Tom Coughlin and the New York Giants make the Super Bowl a quadrennial thing? Well, that seems like a stretch, but a 5-11 team the 2015 New York Giants are not. Do not underestimate Tom Coughlin, he's not going out like that. Given the relatively soft schedule, the Giants should be in the mix for a playoff spot, and as TC has proven anything can happen from there.


Projection: 9-7

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Doe Fund Raises Stink With Garbage Can Protest Posters

Can, 84th and Third Avenue (A. Fine 9/2015)
New to virtually every Upper East Side garbage can that The Doe Fund's "Ready, Willing, and Able" crews service are large blue posters exhorting Mayor de Blasio to "SAVE OUR JOBS." The jobs that they are referring to are those of the homeless and in many cases also previously incarcerated that work for the fund cleaning streets while participating in the fund's year long program that transitions the homeless to productive, self-sufficient, drug-free members of society. The axe that Doe has to grind is regarding the 400 bed shelter that they run in Bushwick, which the city insists should take in 50 registered sex offenders. Doe is currently in litigation with the city and refuses to take the sex offenders- who could blame them! The argument is complex, but Doe won't put the creeps into their program and the jobs they refer to are the 50 homeless that would not end up employed with Doe. To take things further, Doe insists that, essentially, they will take their ball and go home altogether rather than deal with sex offenders at their shelters. So, that would result in either 400 or 700 "Ready, Willing, and Able" being out of work and support services. So, that is the crux of the argument, for more detail check articles on Bedford and Bowery and Bushwick Daily. But, this brings us back to those garbage can posters. I'll be honest, I have a problem with them. Here are a few concerns:

- Does Doe own the garbage cans that they are using as political billboards, or are those the property of the city?

- Since so much of Doe's income comes from city contracts, grants, and income from cleaning contracts, can you really protest the city on the city's dime?

- Is it appropriate for an organization (whose founder, George McDonald ran for Mayor last election) to posterize the city with messages that could be deemed critical of the person who was actually elected Mayor?

- Are these large signs, in many cases on every corner of a block, even legal?

OK, clearly I am not a fan of turning every garbage can on the UES into a sandwich board for a political cause. That is not saying that the cause is unjust. I admire The Doe Fund and everything they have done to positively transition 22,000 homeless back to productive citizenry. I agree with their position on sex offenders. But, the posters? They belong in the trash can, not on them!

More on The Doe Fund and Ready, Willing, and Able

Thursday, August 6, 2015

The Wraps Are Off 151 East 78th

151 South Face (A. Fine 8/2015)

151 Top East (A. Fine 8/2015)

151 Top West (A. Fine 8/2015)

The wraps are finally off at 151 East 78th Street, the elegant Pre-War reproduction condo with extraordinary pricing and lightning fast sell-through. Architect, Peter Pennoyer did a pretty kick ass job here, don't you think? This fits in rather well in the Metropolitan Hill section of the UES, and the $3200/psf+ is right on target for the hood as well. Just waiting for the granite and limestone base to put the icing on the cake!
Previously:
Metropolitan Hill Development-O-Rama (Jan, 2015)
Curbed Files for 151 East 78th (Curbed)

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Tommie Hotel Rises On East 31st Street

Left- Old Rendering (courtesy KSNY), Right- New Rendering (courtesy GSK)
5/2015 (A. Fine)
It was to be a 37 story hotel, now it is to be a 30 story hotel. It was to be all shiny glass, now it appears it will be about half glass and half metal. It was to open in 2014, then 2015, now 2016. The one constant with the future Tommie Hotel is change. Designed by Gwathmey Siegel Kaufman, I wont even start on the various financial arrangements, partners, and trades made since prior to the financial crisis. Here is a pic, a couple renderings past and current, and we'll see if they can get this finished without further changes.
Related:
Curbed Tags on Tommie Hotel (Curbed)

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Fed Flash: Rates Remain Unchanged, Likely To Remain Flat Until The Fall

The Fed has once again left rates unchanged. The April meeting concluded very much like the March meeting in statement and substance. I remain convinced that a rate hike is unlikely before Fall, and rate hikes and an ease of accommodative policy will be very gradual. The Fed outlines six factors to consider before raising rates: the labor market, inflation gauges, inflation expectations, and "financial and international developments", and of course the strength of the economy. The strongest of these indicators at present is the labor market which has remained healthy. Jobless claims are at a the lowest level in a decade, so the gradual improvement in the labor looks good. Wages are just starting to uptick, which would suggest that the slack in the labor market has finally started to tighten up. Inflation is tame, especially in light of lower energy prices, but the expectation in the ever vague fed-speak of "medium term" looks to be around their target of 2%. The financial markets are relatively stable for now, yet the international situation remains shaky. So, by most indicators, we are still in a holding pattern. The Fed sees the Winter pause in growth as "transitory", but will have to see evidence that it is right before it takes any action.


How does this play for the NYC real estate market? For now, more Goldilocks!


Keep an eye on the blog for an upcoming entry looking at the NYC real estate market in depth.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Update: 205 East 92nd Getting Bricked, Up to 15 Stories

205 E 92nd, Front (A. Fine 4/2015)

205 East 92nd Back- East Face (A. Fine, 4/2015)

Brick (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Last we checked in on 205 East 92nd Street, back in January, the base was just coming together. What a difference a few months makes. The building is now taking shape, rising 15 stories, and giving us a preview of the neutral brick fa├žade. The finished product by Related will rise 425 feet, include 231 residential units (they are probably leaning condo, but last report was condo/rental mix), a 46,000sf school for the learning disabled, and 33,000sf of retail.

What I find most interesting is that the average size apartment will be a little better than 1400sf. That is a stark contrast to the full floor, 3000+ square foot McManhattamansions (yes, I am using that made up word) being built in the area. I can only hope that this is a trend towards "reasonable sized" apartments. Yes, there is demand for some of the huge apartments, but the demand for normal sized apartments is extreme. I am sure Related will be rewarded for recognizing this segment of the market.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Dazzling "Fata Morgana" Art Installation at Madison Square Park Takes Shape

Fata Morgana (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Fata Morgana Worker (A. Fine, 4/2015)

Fata Morgana Path (A. Fine, 4/2015)
"Fata Morgana" (referring to a mirage just above the horizon), an ambitious art installation by local artist Teresita Fernandez, is taking shape in Madison Square Park. The completed work, which consists of large golden polished metal disks shaped reminiscent of foliage, should be ready by June 1st. The installation will cover 500 feet of walkways with the fanciful disks and last through the winter.

I'm not an art aficionado, but from this layman's sensibilities I find the art both pleasant and intriguing. The warmth from the golden glow from the disks gives parkgoers a different perspective of the environment. The reflections also enhance the senses and alter your perception of your surroundings. It's different, interesting and ever changing based on your angle, the amount of light, and the season. This being New York, there are reports that some locals are "outraged" and "furious" about the shade that these disks create and the size of the project. As Artnews, that noted this anger points out, the installation covers just 9% of the park. Hey, this is New York, we love art, so to the sourpusses that have a problem with it, I say "Get-ova-it"!

Mad Sq Art: Teresita Fernandez (Madison Square Park Conservancy)
Parkgoers Furious Over Teresita Fernandez Sculpture at Madison Square Park (Artnews)

100 East 53rd (formerly 610 Lex) Sees Daylight

100 East 53rd (A. Fine, 4/2015)

100 East 53rd (A. Fine, 4/2015)
100 East 53rd Render (Foster & Partners)
What was an upscale vacant lot just a year ago, and a 40 foot hole in the ground seven months ago is now 50' above street level and ready to soar. We know the hard work of financing and then foundation building is done, so Aby Rosen's re-addressed 100 East 53rd Street is set to soar.

The project, which initially stalled during the financial crisis is an exciting one. Foster and Partners, who have only one rendering available, promise a modern take on Modernism. The inspirations are the nearby Seagram Building, and one of my all-time faves, the Lever House. The finished product is to rise razor sharp at 61 stories with 94 apartments, a two story restaurant, and the expected plethora of amenities including 9th floor pool. As reported by The Real Deal, the initial offering plan calls for a $763 Million sellout without amendments. Sales are expected to begin sometime in the next few months.

Curbed Files on 610 Lex, now 100 East 53rd (Curbed)
Aby Rosen's RFR Plans $763 Million Condo Offering at 100 East 53rd (TRDNY)
100 East 53rd Street (Foster and Partners)
Name Changers: 610 Lex Will Now Be Known As 100 East 53rd (Observer)

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Nearly Sold Out 10 Madison Square West Nearly Clad



10 Madison Square West is nearly clad and nearly, if not totally sold out! It was this time last year that it was reported that 119 of the 125 were listed in contract in an astounding 9 months. At least one of the two $35 Mil penthouses is in contract and the buildings website shows a blank page for "availability". StreetEasy does show one last apartment left, 14D, a corner 8 room apartment with views for $14 Million.

It appears that there is still a fair amount of work to be done on the 7 stories that were added to the old Toy Building, and some work on the commercial space on the bottom floors. But, things are clearly taking shape.

Curbed Files on 10 Madison Square West (Curbed)
No Toys But A Park Nearby (NY Times, May 2013)

Friday, April 10, 2015

Battery Maritime Hotel Takes Shape In Lower Manhattan

Battery Maritime Building, Close-up (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Battery Maritime Building (A. Fine, 4/2015)

Battery Maritime Building, Rendering by Rodgers Architects
Construction is moving along quickly at the future hotel, in and on top of the historic Battery Maritime Building. The Beaux Arts structure, with landmark status, was originally built to ferry passengers to Brooklyn during the early 1900's. Planned and taking shape is a large glass addition with will hold 140 "boutique" hotel rooms, a rooftop bar and restaurant, as well as a "grand hall" on the 2nd floor of the existing structure. The Dermot company has assigned the fragile $150 Million task to Rodgers Architects. An onsite construction work quotes "a year and a half or so" to completion. He adds "it's spectacular."
Curbed Files on Battery Maritime Building (Curbed)
Battery Maritime Building (Rodgers Architects)

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

On East 82nd Street 1444 Third Avenue Begins Demo, But Will Rendering Become Reality?

1444 Third Avenue (A Fine, 4/2015)
1444 Third Avenue Rendering (ODA Architecture)

Demolition is now well underway at the future new development (presumably condos) at 1444 Third Avenue. While the two buildings on the southwest corner of East 82nd Street and Third Avenue are being brought down brick by brick, the final product, seems far from etched in stone at this point. ODA Architecture describes the 10 story structure as having the "elegance of limestone townhouses of Fifth Avenue and Madison Avenue modernized" and will offer "individual floor homes". The rendering was leaked fully two years ago, yet the permit for this structure appears remain in limbo. In fact, several permits have been disapproved, rejected, or pending as the development challenge process continues "pending zoning approval." Perhaps the as-of-right square footage of 26,000 is in question? Considering the scale of other high rises on the avenue and the surrounding area, I'm almost surprised they couldn't pull off an even larger structure.

Regardless, I hope the final product gets approved. At first look I wasn't in love, but the design is growing on me for two reasons. First, you have plenty of limestone, a staple of classic Manhattan construction. The re-imagining of the use of this material is ambitious. Secondly, it is not another ubiquitous, bland, sheet glass special. Of course, we'll have to see if the rendering meets reality and the permits become reality.

Related:
Striated Structure to Replace UES Tenement on Third Avenue? (Curbed, 4/2013)
ODA Architecture Accidentally Posts Mysterious UES Rendering (Observer, 4/2013)

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

"Dos Alas", East Harlem


"Dos Alas" the mural just east of Third Avenue since 1999 is still in great shape. The two revolutionaries, Ernesto "Che" Guevara and Pedro Albizu Campos, are depicted along with the Cuban and Puerto Rican flags. The mural was expanded and refurbished in 2011.

Friday, April 3, 2015

Top 10 Epic Signs of East Harlem

While most of New York City transforms from an fascinating quilt of Mom and Pops stores to a bland collection of Starbucks and Chase Banks, a certain stretch of Manhattan in East Harlem should be savored and appreciated before it too is gone. Third Avenue from 104th Street to 125th Street is an area on the fragile cusp between glorious relic and rapid condo development. While the neighborhood has long been home to discount stores with audacious branding, you just sense that the wave is oh so near. So, before this unique stretch of New York City too vanishes, let's take a moment to enjoy the10 most epic signs of East Harlem, in no particular order:

V.I.M! (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Save-A-Thon (A. Fine, 4/2015)

99 Rush- the only one on Lexington (A. Fine, 4/2015)
J Dept Store (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Uptown Jiggie Sports (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Envy Nails (A. Fine, 4/2015)

American Outlet (A.Fine, 4/2015)

Easy Shopping (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Dollar Diva (A. Fine, 4/2015)

Slamdunk (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Hope everyone enjoyed!

Thursday, April 2, 2015

21 West End Avenue Nearly Topped, Gets Glassy

21 WEA from west (A. Fine, 4/2015)
21 WEA from the east, action shot! (A. Fine, 4/2015)

Part of the five tower "Riverside Center" complex, 21 West End Avenue is the first to be nearly topped. My how we have grown! Friend NYYIMBY counted 3 stories back in August, and friend Field Condition counted about half way just 8 weeks ago. It appears that this building is growing at better than a floor per week now and it now stands around 36 stories with just 7 to go. In the meantime, much of the cladding is in place and the building is actively getting glassed. Built by Dermot Company and architect SLCE the future rental will house 616 rentals and a K-8 school in the base.

Construction Update 21 WEA (NYYIMBY, 8/2014)
Riverside Center (Field Condition, 2/2015)
Curbed Files for 21 WEA (Curbed)
Dermot Company In JV with AFL-CIO (PR Newswire 12/2012)

Pyramid Building, 625 West 57th, Is Mind Numbing and Fantastic!

The pictures should speak for themselves here as a pyramid meets the Hudson River at West 57th Street. This Durst Organization effort peaks at 450 feet and will contain 709 rental units with an obvious abundance of terraces. The design is mind blowing and something to behold at any angle. Wow!

From the south at West 57th Street
Heart of the pyramid from the south at West 57th (A. Fine 4/2015)
Pyramid from the West at WEA and West 58th (A. Fine, 4/2015)
Pyramid from the north at 61st, west of WEA (A.Fine, 4/2015)
Inside West 57th Street (Field Condition 3/2015)
625 West 57th (Curbed Files)

Friday, March 27, 2015

Could the Dollar/Euro Trade Bring Inventory to the New York City Real Estate Market?


Russia is in disarray, China is slowing, and Europe has been a basket case since the Great Recession. The one thing these regions have in common is that they have all been big investors in New York City real estate for the past decade. One major difference between now, and the last 10 years is that the US Dollar is the strongest that it has been since 2003. The difference is extreme. The dollar has rallied nearly 30% in the past 12 months. Between 2006 and 2014, the Dollar ranged between $1.20 to $1.59 per Euro, but on average was around $1.40 or 30% weaker than it is today. So, if you are a foreign investor in New York City real estate, without price appreciation, you are up on average 30% if you bought any time in the past 9 years. Add in price appreciation, which widely varies, but is almost universally positive, and you have some staggering returns! Those returns are even more substantial if you managed to use leverage (a mortgage) in the process. So, what is to stop foreign investors from shaking their New York City real estate piggy banks? Let's take a look at a couple of scenarios:

Investor A from the Eurozone purchases an investment property in Manhattan in late 2010 for $2,000,000 and uses all cash. The investment costs him 1,428,000 Euros at a $1.40 exchange rate. Over the past 4 years his property appreciates 25% net. At the same time, the Dollar appreciates 28%. Investor A sells his property today. So, investor A nets $2,500,000 and converts the dollars back to Euros. Thus, his net is 2,293,000 Euro, or a tidy 60.5%.

Investor B makes the same Manhattan purchase in late 2010, but manages to secure a mortgage of 75%. Investor B's investment is $500,000 or 357,000 Euros. Assuming that carrying costs and gain of equity on the mortgage are a wash, the apartment appreciates the same 25% net and he decides to sell. The proceeds are $2,500,000- $500,000 of which is a profit, $500,000 is his recouped down payment and $1,500,000 go back to the bank. Investor B coverts his $1,000,000 back to euros and ends up with 917,000 euro. You can see how much this leverage helps. The profit on the initial investment is 560,000 euro or a whopping 156%!

Under either scenario, the profit is tidy. What would stop the foreign investor from selling? Some ideas:
- Capital Gains Tax
- Possibility that the dollar rallies further with Fed increasing rates later in 2015
- Possibility of losing future appreciation in the NYC market
- The US as safe haven, concerns that Europe, Russia, China economies worsen


All things considered, New York City will likely remain an attractive investment regardless of currency trade. The chances of net outflow of foreign real estate investment is highly unlikely. However, if you happen to be an oil baron from overseas and times are tough, you can bet that the NYC piggy bank has to look awfully tempting.