Monday, November 3, 2008

The Perfect Storm Brews For Obama Landslide, An Election Primer

History will be made tomorrow night. Barack Obama will be elected to the nation's highest office in a landslide. The election will be decided by a margin of greater than 10 million votes. Not only have recent economic events and a hideous 8 years of ineptitude known as the Bush administration favored the challenger, Barack Obama has run a brilliant, nearly flawless campaign. Having raised over $600 Million dollars from over 3 Million donors, Obama has also assembled a ground game that is unprecedented in the history of the United States. In "red" states like Missouri, nearly 14,000 volunteers are on the ground. A little voter fraud or poll issue? Obama has an army of 50,000 lawyers on the ground and at the polls tomorrow. In short, Obama has built an army of historic proportions. Then, look at the demographics that he has built. Sure, the black vote is going in all time numbers to Obama. I believe it was the GallupPoll that gave him a 97-1 advantage. Equally impressive though is that it is expected that Obama will carry a greater percentage of white voters than Clinton did in either win. And hispanics? What was McCain thinking? McCain gave the hispanic community no play, and such he is losing the hispanic vote by better than 40 points. The result? A landslide victory by Barack Obama.

I think we are talking big numbers here- at least 352 for Obama in the electoral college to 145-186 for McCain. The ground game will be a huge factor and I think it will add around 3 points more for Obama across the board than the conventional wisdom. If that's the case, even states like Georgia, Montana, and possibly Arizona will be in play. Personally, I think Obama will actually win Montana, albeit by a small margin. Georgia and North Carolina could also be pleasant surprises considering the huge turnout. Of All the toss-ups, I do think McCain will probably win Indiana and has a decent chance in Georgia and North Carolina. On the other side I think Obama sweeps the vast majority of them, but most importantly, he will win handily in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. At that point the deal will be sealed and it will be an early night for all of us.
Tune in tomorrow for an hour by hour scorecard.

No comments:

Post a Comment