Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Tuesday Morning Links

Who does Madoff own? Who does Madoff have the goods on? Those should be natural questions when a man who has admitted to stealing up to $50 Billion somehow has the privilege of house arrest in a penthouse apartment on the UES. So now he is accused of sending out packages containing $1 Million worth of watches, cuff links, etc. from that home during his "house arrest". And why not? This guy is the biggest cheat in our history. Who decided that we could all of a sudden trust him? The handling of this case continues to be a complete joke.
Bid To Revoke Madoff's House Arrest After Mailing Out $1 Mil In Goods (NY Times)
CitiField And Shea: Updated Pics (WCBS via Curbed)
4th Quarter Reports: Sales Down, Prices, Not So Much (Observer)
Lousy Economy Saves UWS's "Emerald Bar" (NY Times)
November Construction Spending Better Than Expected (Bloomberg)

13 comments:

  1. There have been a slew of articles today in the NYT, NYP, WSJ etc. regarding NYC real estate. How come you didn't post links?

    So do you think prices have come down? Some articles suggest they're down quite a bit, not flat. Curious to know your point of view. Why the discrepancy?

    Also, do you think prices will go up or down this year?

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  2. Actually there was a link from the observer which summarized 3 broker reports on the 4th Quarter.

    Prices are flat to down 10% depending on the area (of Manhattan below 96th St.). Many reports are distorted by a handful of high end sales (like 15CPW) or lack thereof. You have to dig deeper to stats like $/psf by property type.

    I think we'll be flat in 2009. I reserve the right to be dead wrong. For the first half of the year, it will be a buyers market and a great time to negotiate the best deal possible. If there is a widespread sense that the market has turned, those deals will dry up quickly. If indeed the fed is successful in driving rates down to 4.5% and something can be done for jumbo rates as well, it could end up being a positive year.

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  3. Fine - are you aware that Jonathan Miller said prices in contract are down 20% from a few months ago?

    Did you know that the head of PropertyShark is forecasting a total bloodbath?

    Here's an opportunity for you to show some credibility, but yet again you consciously ignore the NYT, WSJ and NYP articles (for the fucking Observer!).

    I only visit your website to laugh at you gaseous broker bullshit, thinking one of these days you might display either objectivity or insight, but you continue to keep your head in the sand like other broker hacks.

    Fine - it's time to be honest. Consider this constructive advice. You don't want your only readers to be people who think you're a hack and come here for a laugh, do you?

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  4. Anonymous-
    The Observer summarized the same reports that the NY Times, Journal, etc. summarized. It had the positives (some prices are holding up) and the negatives highlighted by a huge drop in volume.

    I just received an email alert from Crain's, not a slacky publication:
    "A sharp falloff in sales volume during the fourth quarter of 2008 sent inventory levels soaring by 39%, even as the average prices of homes produced increased a bit.
    » Read the Full Story"

    So yes, volume is way down, supply is up. All I am saying is that despite J. Miller noting that average contract prices are down 20%, he also said: "While the overall median sales price rose 5.9 percent, luxury prices dropped 3.9 percent and the median for all resale apartments slid 3.6 percent."

    Less high end transactions means a lower average price in contract.

    Credibility is taking everything in context and not running, screaming, with the most dramatic headline.

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  5. Aw, how cute, Andrew has a troll!

    Pushing aside the debate, I've been watching the Madoff travesty and it's so darn juicy. For the feds and regs to turn such a blind eye to his f*ckery for so long, he had to be blackmailing or paying off some very important people.

    And my own personal conspiracy theory has a lot of his money hidden in Israel...

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  6. just because prices are down doesnt mean prices are down.

    some good negotiations to be had certainly - as sellers carrying new units and have a gun to their heads to repay construction loans.... but partly biased population selling: real estate is a great investment if you don't have to sell at any particular time. "good" RE isn't going to take a bath in NYC.

    I'm with A Fine: deals will dry up quickly. Eat or be eaten, now.

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  7. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  8. um, I don't think Ryan is a real estate broker. He is of the zodiac sign Leo however. So, by that logic you must be a Scorpio.

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  9. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  10. i'm not a broker--didn't see the deleted comment but I assume it was about that per AF's comment. I work for Bloomberg LP. I've no vested interest where condo/co-op prices go this year - all i care about is my one apartment, and what it's worth to one person, a few years out.

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  11. you didn't miss much, just a couple of profanity laced insults.

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  12. Ryan - The deleted comments ridiculed your statement that "real estate is a great investment if you don't have to sell..."

    This inane rationalization is so funny - it's the last refuge of someone losing money, someone in denial.

    When things are good, you say "my apartment is worth $x! Real estate is such a great investment!". When prices plummet, you say "I just won't sell! Real estate is such a great investment!"

    The comment was so stupid that it's easy to reflexively attribute it to a broker. But I guess it is just as easily attributable to an owner in denial! :)

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  13. thanks for the sum.

    I could be wrong. I very well may be wrong. real estate could be dead weight in my pocket. But I'm enjoying my place (most important), I've no plans to sell, as it was a recent purchase (2nd half 2008). i'm doing slightly better than my mortgage rate in this year and last, which is free money, and if I get lucky and all the know-it-alls are incorrect.... then I'm nicely leveraged on the way out. if not... "you win you lose, same old news." in the big picture, maybe i won't make a big return on this purchase...maybe i'll lose a bit of my equity... but it doesn't matter really ... I'm doing well enough to purchase nyc real estate, which probably means i'll end up further along in 10-20 years than where I'm at now, in my 20's. so it doesn't matter really.
    in denial, nope.
    know what will happen tomorrow, nope.
    do you know. dunno?

    but my vote is that in 3-5 years ppl will pay the same retarded prices that i paid to get in, and the same as i'm asking on the way out. or not. whatever.

    as I said... I'm enjoying the apartment.

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